Stock Market Panic!?
- Thread starter InTheBum
- Start date
No, wrong guess. I won't post it on the open board as we have a relatively small presence in Vancouver, but I could PM to anyone interested. Went down another $4.50 today!Sounds like Tech Cominco...if I had to guess...
I know they have a head office in Vancouver.
DOW down 630 today. I remember on Thursday they were saying it was the biggest drop since 2008, and now today they are saying the same thing again.
Yes it is.....Parkland Fuel Corp...PKI is the symbol....they own the FasGas chain and have their own refinery in Bowden....the company recently sold off it's trucking division for 32 million and at the same time signed a very favourable deal for trucking services with the buyer for the next 4 years....an injection of cash to the allready healthy balance sheet and a long term contract for delivery at a decent rate = WINNING....the stock dropped huge off the opening bell....I placed my order for market price and the closing price friday was $10.68 a share.....my trade went through at 9:30 am...well after a lot of suckers sold and it hit bottom....I picked it up for $10.12 a share and saved myself around $700.....which is more than enough to buy 100 shares of Grand Cache Coal and take it for a ride.
Funny enough I had been looking at this same investment in PKI for the last couple months but I wanted the share price to decline a bit so as to maximize the amount of share I could aquire for the purposes of having the stock compounding itself with the 5% DRIP......it is a long term hold now that I have pulled the trigger....unless of course the stock goes on a tear and hits $18+ a share.....I would have to sell it in that case.
SR
At 40% cash...30% Bonds (most corporate short term - etf) and 30% stocks. Thankfully, I have no mining, but Oil and Financials are dropping like crazy. I am still losing a lot...and i didn't do a VIX or other short today...market opened down so much I decided against it...
Teck Cominco has lost about half its value from May...and guests on BNN were recommending it a month ago at $55 a share...$37 today...
Teck Cominco has lost about half its value from May...and guests on BNN were recommending it a month ago at $55 a share...$37 today...
Teck will come back....hell the stock bottomed out at $3.35 after buying out Fording Coal in late 2008 and has since hit a high of $65 a share.
SR
That's probably safe to say. I think ETFs are fine as trading vehicles, and have had good success overall (with some stinkers thrown in).
If an investor holds ETFs for the longer term, you do have to have an eye on counterparty risk and having your capital decay from the rolling over of contracts, etc. I have learned that the hard way >cough< natural gas >cough<.
I feel vindicated. I thought the market was way overvalued for a long time. When I left at Dow 11k last winter and watched in agony as the bull market took it to almost 13k no matter what news was on the horizon. Now will some smart perb person tell me when to throw in the kitchen sink and jump back in?
Tech hitting $3.35 a share was not about the stock being punished.....Tech made a smart move in buying out Fording Coal and locking up all that coking coal production in that joint venture...especially since coking coal went for $95 a ton to $300 a ton.....in the 2nd quarter of 2008 Fording Coal upped it's dividend from .50 a share to $2.50 a share....It was smart move by Teck to both increase mining capacity/supply as well as to take over the whole venture.....Teck stock got beat up due to greed and fear....with the main downside of the deal was that the international credit markets were locked up.....Teck forced the deal through though.......in hindsite I wish I had sold my house and shot the moon at Teck when it was at $3.35
SR
I don't know, but I have a few thoughts...
If you think back to early 2009 when the S&P bottomed at 666, the bottom came when nearly everyone including myself threw in the towel. Not that everyone was stupid, but the trade becomes too crowded on one side of the boat and there is no one left to sell to.
In a bull trend, the 200 day moving average is typically considered to be the last line of defence, but the S&P broke through that to the downside a few days ago at 1290, currently sitting at 1119.
You can get round number resistance at 1100 and 1000, etc.
You will likely see some resistance at the two major bottoms of the last two years, which would be 1050 and 1025. A worst-case scenario would be the 2009 panic low of 666.
If you follow textbook technical analysis, in your perfect world you are looking for a descending wedge, which basically means you look for the index to trade in a range that gets smaller and smaller, ie., lower lows and lower highs. What that means is that the market is looking to establish a price. Once enough people agree on that price (because the trading range is getting smaller), it will break in strongly in one direction or the other. Usually the direction it breaks in is that against the steeper curve because it is the less sustainable of the two. Below is an example of a descending wedge on the U.S. dollar chart.
Another point is that the S&P is breaking down not only parabolically, but you could argue its angle of descent is even increasing, which is clearly not sustainable.
For what it's worth, I am calling for a short term bottom at 1050.
A trade that is starting to look very attractive though is to go either long the Canadian dollar and/or short the U.S. dollar. The C$ is flirting with $1.00 U.S. again.
many support lines have been broken the past week, short term down trend still inctact, no end in sight.
The below are just rough numbers off top of my head, but they should be close to actual technical studies.
last month I predicted Tsx would drop to around 12,500.. the market cut through that support line like butter.. in this case, if tsx goes below 11,100, it will free fall to 10,350, after that it will go down to around 8,700, but if we reached this level, than the momentum will push us to bottem between 6500 to 7400..its one of those market phenomenons required to complete the cycle.
carefull what you buy guys, if market goes down, and people's margins get called, they are forced to liquidate other assets, that means even things you thought was safe to buy will also get dragged down or underperform.
At this point the TSX needs to get break upwards of 12,400, other wise I will stay bearish even if we see a small rebound.
The below are just rough numbers off top of my head, but they should be close to actual technical studies.
last month I predicted Tsx would drop to around 12,500.. the market cut through that support line like butter.. in this case, if tsx goes below 11,100, it will free fall to 10,350, after that it will go down to around 8,700, but if we reached this level, than the momentum will push us to bottem between 6500 to 7400..its one of those market phenomenons required to complete the cycle.
carefull what you buy guys, if market goes down, and people's margins get called, they are forced to liquidate other assets, that means even things you thought was safe to buy will also get dragged down or underperform.
At this point the TSX needs to get break upwards of 12,400, other wise I will stay bearish even if we see a small rebound.
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Too bad you did not wait a bit longer.....it will pay off for you though....ride that stock until it pays you BIG......then sock away that cash for the next downturn :thumb:
The term " punished " was just my working. I was following teck for years I remember reading and listening on BNN that a few investors ( large ones ) were not to impressed with them taking Fording under their belt. That is all I was saying. There are many reason and " excuses " as to why Stocks plummet.
You are right about the " fear and greed " part which is, once again, what we are reliving.
This time, however, I snagged Teck a few weeks ago and currently. For all I care, Teck could nose dive down to $10 again......I got this in my TFSA and I'm going real long with this. Cash and time are on my side right now.:nod:
SR
Very misleading chart...
The term " punished " was just my working. I was following teck for years I remember reading and listening on BNN that a few investors ( large ones ) were not to impressed with them taking Fording under their belt. That is all I was saying. There are many reason and " excuses " as to why Stocks plummet.
You are right about the " fear and greed " part which is, once again, what we are reliving.
This time, however, I snagged Teck a few weeks ago and currently. For all I care, Teck could nose dive down to $10 again......I got this in my TFSA and I'm going real long with this. Cash and time are on my side right now.
You would be filthy rich, if you did that...
Tech had a horrible balance sheet...due to poor timing of purchasing Fording...The banks were coming down hard, and rumor was circulating that Tech might go bust...
That being said, Tech is one of my targets for when I think the market is settling down a bit...
I might have to hire you as my financial adviser.
Gold is currently $1753.30 In order to get the amount of gold I wanted, I had to take some 10 ounce gold bars in addition to the coins. I'll start looking at selling the gold bars once gold is over $1800 an ounce or after next Monday.
it's not that I don't think the Canadian health care system is better, (they said the admin is about 2.5hrs a week to process claims, versus 20+ hrs a week in the US) so doctors spend far, far more time in the US processing these claims) but the political will was never such that the Democrates could ever have implemented a Canadian style health care system.
They'd be called communists or worse and they just wouldn't have enough supporters. American's can never accept that fact that there method's aren't alway the best.
They still call their country's democracy the best in the world dispite the fact it can't accomplish anything unless amageddon is at their doorsteps.
Fundamentally I agree with what you've said. However, they do have rebates and other mechanism's to reduce this cost, but I fully agree, one of the additional costs of employing people in the US verses in Canada is the cost of providing them with health care. Unfortunately not providing them with health care and having the taxpayer pay by default as people visit the emergency room after an accident, or are illegal immigrants, isn't a viable solution either. I don't really know which is better the statuo quo of having very few people insurred or the Obama care alternative, which can't really be the cause of the current situation because it doesn't even kick in for a few more years.
Yeah well if I had followed my gut and bought 1000 shares of Fording in February 2008 like I planned and had just shy of 100 grand after the takeover by Teck....I sure as hell would have thrown it all at Teck when it was at $3.35 a share and I would have most likely sold those 30,000 shares of Teck when it hit $46 a share for a cool 1.4 million and I would have quit my job......and the next day after I leveraged that money into an interest paying investment that would have gotten me a monthly allowance of $10,000 after taxes I would have buggered off on a 4 month tour of Thailand/Cambodia/Laos/Vietnam/The Philopines and of course Hong Kong just to visit the "sharkpit" in the Lisboa Hotel...this would have been financed by the money I have in my slushfund and all the while I would be accumulating 10 grand a month in after tax cash whilst fucking my brains out in south eat asia and also playing a lot of golf....meanwhile my ex wife would be frezzing her ass off in Calgary during a Canadian winter and getting post cards from me whilst I was enjoying tropical bliss.
Trust your gut instincts is all I can say :doh:
SR
