And now Rubio is out

[sdw]

No longer much doubt on who the candidates will be in November
Both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump were the winners tonight

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/primary-calendar-and-results.html?_r=1

 

[badbadboy]

I was hoping Rubio would stay in til the bitter end. It would make the Repugnant Convention exciting to watch the bloodletting between he candidates.

 

[Equity Market investor]

I was hoping Rubio would stay in til the bitter end. It would make the Repugnant Convention exciting to watch the bloodletting between he candidates.

Rubio is very smart kid and has a bright future ahead. During the Republican debate last week, his answers were quick, sharp and effective imo. However, he is young and I think due to the clout Trump has......very tough to go up against.

I think it's no surprise to any of us that the end result would be Trump vs Clinton.

Now......question is, who takes the throne come November? It's very interesting to say the least. One of the most explosive and exciting election imo.

 

[McDiver]

It'll be Trump with Carson as VP.

Trump will choose Christie to be his possible VP, not Carson.

 

[FreeG]

More than any other election in history, this one is providing the answer to the age-old question: Precisely how many white, racist, ignorant people are there in the US?

(OK, so many that doesn't summarize EVERY Trump voter... but if recent rally performances are any indication, its not far off...)

 

[leoghaire]

the biggest question I can see is why the Hell is Kasich still in? Pretty much the invisible candidate. Nobody outside of his state has any idea who he is. It seems to me he was sticking around only to prevent Trump from winning Ohio since it is a winner take all state. With that now out of the way, I expect to announce the suspension of his campaign in the next couple of days

 

[pussyeater]

We need a good strong US President that doesn't kiss the ass of every liberal pussy out there. Look what a useless asshole Canada has elected! i think of him as Obama north!!!

 

[rlock]

the biggest question I can see is why the Hell is Kasich still in? Pretty much the invisible candidate. Nobody outside of his state has any idea who he is. It seems to me he was sticking around only to prevent Trump from winning Ohio since it is a winner take all state. With that now out of the way, I expect to announce the suspension of his campaign in the next couple of days

Maybe, or maybe he will stick it out figuring that he's the last of the moderates (Trump is a volatile populist, and Cruz a hard-right fundamentalist). Perhaps Kasich wants to grab a small king-making group of delegates, and come out as a VP candidate for one or the other.
We shall see...

We need a good strong US President that doesn't kiss the ass of every liberal pussy out there. Look what a useless asshole Canada has elected! i think of him as Obama north!!!

The useless asshole in Canada was elected in 2006, and we only just got rid of him. Too bad it was by the ballot box and not the noose.

 

[sdw]

Hilary still needs 824 delegates to win (what she's won so far + the superdelegates she has, subtracted from 2383).
The Donald still needs 556 delegates to win (what he's won so far + 3 superdelegates for each of the 20 states he's won, subtracted from 1237).

At this point, I think that The Donald will be confirmed as the Republican candidate before Hilary will be confirmed as the Democrat candidate.

The Donald is already able to eliminate potential running mates - Alaska for instance wasn't won by Trump, which means Palin won't be on his short list. That actually breaks my heart because the selection of Palin would have guaranteed Trump's lose in the General Election. If the numbers on June 7 are such that New Jersey delivers the final delegates that Trump needs, then Chris Christie has a good shot at being on the ticket. If Trump already has enough delegates before June 7, his running mate will be who was able to deliver for him.

Hopefully this list of remaining primaries will paste properly

Date State D Del. R Del. Type Results
Tue, Mar 22 American Samoa (R convention) 9 (Unbound) Open
Tue, Mar 22 Arizona 85 58 (WTA) Closed
Tue, Mar 22 Idaho Caucus (D) 27 Closed
Tue, Mar 22 Utah 37 40 (P) Closed
Sat, Mar 26 Alaska Caucus (D) 20 Closed
Sat, Mar 26 Hawaii Caucus (D) 34 Closed
Sat, Mar 26 Washington Caucus (D) 118 Closed
Tue, Apr 5 Wisconsin 96 42 (WTA) Open
Sat, Apr 9 Wyoming Caucus (D) 18 Closed
Tue, Apr 19 New York 291 95 (P) Closed
Tue, Apr 26 Connecticut 70 28 (P) Closed
Tue, Apr 26 Delaware 31 16 (WTA) Closed
Tue, Apr 26 Maryland 118 38 (WTA) Closed
Tue, Apr 26 Pennsylvania 210 71 (P, WTA) Closed
Tue, Apr 26 Rhode Island 33 19 (P) Mixed
Tue, May 3 Indiana 92 57 (WTA) Open
Sat, May 7 Guam (D) 12 Closed
Tue, May 10 Nebraska (R) 36 Closed
Tue, May 10 West Virginia 34 37 Mixed
Tue, May 17 Kentucky (D) 61 Closed
Tue, May 17 Oregon 73 28 (P) Closed
Tue, May 24 Washington (R)* 44 (P) Closed
Sat, Jun 4 Virgin Islands Caucus (D) 12 Open
Sun, Jun 5 Puerto Rico Caucus (D) 67 Open
Tue, Jun 7 California 546 172 (WTA) Mixed
Tue, Jun 7 Montana 27 27 (WTA) Open
Tue, Jun 7 New Jersey 142 51 (WTA) Closed
Tue, Jun 7 New Mexico 43 24 (P) Closed
Tue, Jun 7 North Dakota Caucus (D) 23 Closed
Tue, Jun 7 South Dakota 25 29 (WTA) Closed
Tue, Jun 14 District of Columbia (D) 46 Closed

 

[Tugela]

Closed primaries are not favorable for Trump since a big chunk of his support actually comes from Independents, not Republicans (the same thing applies to Bernie Sanders btw). It is not a given that it will be plain sailing for him through the rest of the race, especially since there are only three now and soon probably only two. Then it will become a straight up pro/anti Trump vote. He is not breaching 50% in most states, so he very well may find the going tough towards the end.

Right now he has less than 50% of the pledged delegates, and if it comes to a brokered convention he won't get the nomination.

If he doesn't get the nomination then he will probably run as an independent anyway, which will guarantee that Clinton becomes the president.

I am not sure that he can win the presidency even if he does get the nomination since I'm pretty sure that a big chunk of the Republican electorate loath him and will probably abstain from voting if he is their candidate. To get any traction of Clinton he will have to get a big chunk of Democrats to break his way, but with his attitudes that might be a hard sell.

 

[thodisipagal]

Hilary still needs 824 delegates to win (what she's won so far + the superdelegates she has, subtracted from 2383).
The Donald still needs 556 delegates to win (what he's won so far + 3 superdelegates for each of the 20 states he's won, subtracted from 1237).

At this point, I think that The Donald will be confirmed as the Republican candidate before Hilary will be confirmed as the Democrat candidate.

The Donald is already able to eliminate potential running mates - Alaska for instance wasn't won by Trump, which means Palin won't be on his short list. That actually breaks my heart because the selection of Palin would have guaranteed Trump's lose in the General Election. If the numbers on June 7 are such that New Jersey delivers the final delegates that Trump needs, then Chris Christie has a good shot at being on the ticket. If Trump already has enough delegates before June 7, his running mate will be who was able to deliver for him.

Hopefully this list of remaining primaries will paste properly

Date State D Del. R Del. Type Results
Tue, Mar 22 American Samoa (R convention) 9 (Unbound) Open
Tue, Mar 22 Arizona 85 58 (WTA) Closed
Tue, Mar 22 Idaho Caucus (D) 27 Closed
Tue, Mar 22 Utah 37 40 (P) Closed
Sat, Mar 26 Alaska Caucus (D) 20 Closed
Sat, Mar 26 Hawaii Caucus (D) 34 Closed
Sat, Mar 26 Washington Caucus (D) 118 Closed
Tue, Apr 5 Wisconsin 96 42 (WTA) Open
Sat, Apr 9 Wyoming Caucus (D) 18 Closed
Tue, Apr 19 New York 291 95 (P) Closed
Tue, Apr 26 Connecticut 70 28 (P) Closed
Tue, Apr 26 Delaware 31 16 (WTA) Closed
Tue, Apr 26 Maryland 118 38 (WTA) Closed
Tue, Apr 26 Pennsylvania 210 71 (P, WTA) Closed
Tue, Apr 26 Rhode Island 33 19 (P) Mixed
Tue, May 3 Indiana 92 57 (WTA) Open
Sat, May 7 Guam (D) 12 Closed
Tue, May 10 Nebraska (R) 36 Closed
Tue, May 10 West Virginia 34 37 Mixed
Tue, May 17 Kentucky (D) 61 Closed
Tue, May 17 Oregon 73 28 (P) Closed
Tue, May 24 Washington (R)* 44 (P) Closed
Sat, Jun 4 Virgin Islands Caucus (D) 12 Open
Sun, Jun 5 Puerto Rico Caucus (D) 67 Open
Tue, Jun 7 California 546 172 (WTA) Mixed
Tue, Jun 7 Montana 27 27 (WTA) Open
Tue, Jun 7 New Jersey 142 51 (WTA) Closed
Tue, Jun 7 New Mexico 43 24 (P) Closed
Tue, Jun 7 North Dakota Caucus (D) 23 Closed
Tue, Jun 7 South Dakota 25 29 (WTA) Closed
Tue, Jun 14 District of Columbia (D) 46 Closed

Trump will want a senator or a congressman on the ticket. He has no legislative experience and will need somebody to act as a bridge to the Congress.

He keeps boasting that he has the best experience of running business and he equates that with running the government. For this reason, I doubt he'll pick a governor as his runningmate.

 

[sdw]

Closed primaries are not favorable for Trump since a big chunk of his support actually comes from Independents, not Republicans (the same thing applies to Bernie Sanders btw). It is not a given that it will be plain sailing for him through the rest of the race, especially since there are only three now and soon probably only two. Then it will become a straight up pro/anti Trump vote. He is not breaching 50% in most states, so he very well may find the going tough towards the end.

Right now he has less than 50% of the pledged delegates, and if it comes to a brokered convention he won't get the nomination.

If he doesn't get the nomination then he will probably run as an independent anyway, which will guarantee that Clinton becomes the president.

I am not sure that he can win the presidency even if he does get the nomination since I'm pretty sure that a big chunk of the Republican electorate loath him and will probably abstain from voting if he is their candidate. To get any traction of Clinton he will have to get a big chunk of Democrats to break his way, but with his attitudes that might be a hard sell.

That's the beauty of the US system. Republicans don't vote unless "Their" candidate wins the nomination. So, bottom feeding misogynistic men and women won't vote for a woman - ever. Religious Creationists won't vote for anyone that doesn't agree that the Earth is only 8,000 years old. Roman Catholic pedophiles won't vote for anyone that would even think of reducing the supply of vulnerable young children with Birth Control or GASP Abortion, after all a Priest without a sex toy can't possibly reach heaven. Then, there are all the racists who won't vote for any person of any other race or anyone that supports immigration - even if they, themselves are an immigrant.

Democrats will vote for the Democrat nominee no matter who (s)he is. After all, the gravy train must run. Welfare must be paid, Highway Contracts must be skimmed, Financial Scams must be productive, Lawyers must be allowed to litigate companies that provide hot coffee to clumsy people.

Democrats lose only when the Democrat candidate has been caught being too hypocritical, too larcenous for anyone to ignore (like Gore) and then Democrats vote for the Republican candidate to "clean house". That's why Ronald Reagan got elected (Carter), that's why Bush 43 got elected (Clinton/Gore). Barack Obama is a "do nothing" President, not a scheming, larcenous, hypocrite President. Which is why the Americans will elect Hillary Clinton - who after all - is not named Bill and is his poor suffering wife.

BTW she'll be one term and whomever the Republicans nominate in 2020 will win.

 

[a_lee_n]

Here is an article from earlier in the month that attempts to explain Trump, and it is because Americans love some authoritarianism It is a long article, but an interesting one I think. I haven't had the chance to really digest it, but I thought it might make for some interesting discussion.

The rise of American authoritarianism

 

[SFMIKE]

Closed primaries are not favorable for Trump since a big chunk of his support actually comes from Independents, not

I am not sure that he can win the presidency even if he does get the nomination since I'm pretty sure that a big chunk of the Republican electorate loath him and will probably abstain from voting if he is their candidate. To get any traction of Clinton he will have to get a big chunk of Democrats to break his way, but with his attitudes that might be a hard sell.

Tugela has hit on the gist of Trump's problems. In no state primary/caucus has he been able to win the majority of Republican votes. There is some sort of message in this, but not sure how much this might matter.

The same cannot be said for Clinton on the Democratic side.

 

[Feenix]

The pledged votes are pledged only for the first ballot. If Trump does not win the majority of delegates going into the convention, it will become a very interesting spectacle to watch. That is why, I hope Kasich ( sp??) and Kruz stay in the race.

The voting will go into a run off, eliminating all candidates until one of them reaches a majority of ballots cast. It is still conceivable that The Donald can fail to gain the nomination.

This is an interesting game to watch play out. I wonder if the two parties will examine what has lead up to this chaos and make changes. The Kochs, et al, have played too deep a role in creating this situation. You can only control yourself, and when you try to control the agenda of 350,000,000 people for your own end, it is bound to blow up in your face sometime.

That is what we are witnessing happening right now. I am scared that it is taking a belligerent, bombast like Trump to bring it out in the open. But, someone was bound to sooner or later.

 

[sdw]

The pledged votes are pledged only for the first ballot. If Trump does not win the majority of delegates going into the convention, it will become a very interesting spectacle to watch. That is why, I hope Kasich ( sp??) and Kruz stay in the race.

The voting will go into a run off, eliminating all candidates until one of them reaches a majority of ballots cast. It is still conceivable that The Donald can fail to gain the nomination.

This is an interesting game to watch play out. I wonder if the two parties will examine what has lead up to this chaos and make changes. The Kochs, et al, have played too deep a role in creating this situation. You can only control yourself, and when you try to control the agenda of 350,000,000 people for your own end, it is bound to blow up in your face sometime.

That is what we are witnessing happening right now. I am scared that it is taking a belligerent, bombast like Trump to bring it out in the open. But, someone was bound to sooner or later.

I think that when the "Old Guard" Republican insiders basically declared war on Trump and had Mitt Romney do his tour - they angered the non-democrat potential voters. I think Trump will win the Republican nomination because Trump is going to play that anger even harder than he has been. The problem for Trump is actually the General Election. Republicans have demonstrated repeatably that it's hard to get them to vote.

It's only when the Republican candidate attracts some Democrat votes that the Republican candidate can win. That was demonstrated when Ronald Reagan swept into the White House and again when George Bush 43 won.

There has always been talk about the Supreme Court delivering the 2000 election to Bush, but that was disproved in 2004 when he was elected to his second term. Winning against Gore wasn't much of a surprise, winning against John Kerry should have been tougher - it wasn't. The 2000 election was 271 Electoral Votes for Bush, 266 Electoral Votes for Gore after the Florida Recount. The 2004 election was 286 Electoral Votes for Bush, 251 Electoral Votes for Kerry. In 2000 Gore won the popular vote, in 2004 Bush won the popular vote.

Bill Clinton won the Electoral Votes in both 1992 and 1996, but he didn't get a majority of the popular vote either election. Ross Perot got 18.9% of the popular vote in 1992 and 8.4% of the popular vote in 1996. That guaranteed that Bill Clinton didn't need a majority of the popular vote in either election.

If the Republicans choose to run an "Old Guard" candidate, 1992 and 1996 teach us that they have even less of a chance than they do running Trump.

 

[Sporting]

it's about the jobs, and the selling out of the working class by the elites who designed elegant free trade so they could get work done cheaper elsewhere without giving thought to what might happen to those that just lost their jobs in the next 'burb over. Responsibility? Hubris. That's the burning issue. The Rocky Balboas of the world align with Trump and he's hit the nail on the head with this issue.

 

[Tugela]

That's the beauty of the US system. Republicans don't vote unless "Their" candidate wins the nomination. So, bottom feeding misogynistic men and women won't vote for a woman - ever. Religious Creationists won't vote for anyone that doesn't agree that the Earth is only 8,000 years old. Roman Catholic pedophiles won't vote for anyone that would even think of reducing the supply of vulnerable young children with Birth Control or GASP Abortion, after all a Priest without a sex toy can't possibly reach heaven. Then, there are all the racists who won't vote for any person of any other race or anyone that supports immigration - even if they, themselves are an immigrant.

Democrats will vote for the Democrat nominee no matter who (s)he is. After all, the gravy train must run. Welfare must be paid, Highway Contracts must be skimmed, Financial Scams must be productive, Lawyers must be allowed to litigate companies that provide hot coffee to clumsy people.

Democrats lose only when the Democrat candidate has been caught being too hypocritical, too larcenous for anyone to ignore (like Gore) and then Democrats vote for the Republican candidate to "clean house". That's why Ronald Reagan got elected (Carter), that's why Bush 43 got elected (Clinton/Gore). Barack Obama is a "do nothing" President, not a scheming, larcenous, hypocrite President. Which is why the Americans will elect Hillary Clinton - who after all - is not named Bill and is his poor suffering wife.

BTW she'll be one term and whomever the Republicans nominate in 2020 will win.

Larcenous means stealing, and I'm not aware of anyone in the presidency/VP since Spiro Agnew who would fall into that category.

Incidentally, Clinton would have got a third term if he could have run again. He was pretty popular with the average American, and still is. Obama would likely have won a third term as well. I know everyone goes on about his approval rating but it is currently higher now than the last time he got elected. So he would win again against the 2016 Republicans. Gore got more votes than Bush in his election, he lost out because of the way the electoral college is set up.

Republicans have the gravy train running just as much as the Democrats.

Hillary Clinton will serve one term not because she her presidency would be so bad she couldn't get reelected, but basically because she is too old. There is no guarantee that a Republican will win in 2020. It depends on the quality of the candidates more than anything else.

 

[sdw]

Larcenous means stealing, and I'm not aware of anyone in the presidency/VP since Spiro Agnew who would fall into that category.

Incidentally, Clinton would have got a third term if he could have run again. He was pretty popular with the average American, and still is. Obama would likely have won a third term as well. I know everyone goes on about his approval rating but it is currently higher now than the last time he got elected. So he would win again against the 2016 Republicans. Gore got more votes than Bush in his election, he lost out because of the way the electoral college is set up.

Republicans have the gravy train running just as much as the Democrats.

Hillary Clinton will serve one term not because she her presidency would be so bad she couldn't get reelected, but basically because she is too old. There is no guarantee that a Republican will win in 2020. It depends on the quality of the candidates more than anything else.

Hillary Clinton will be elected with an expectation that racial relations will improve. Especially since she will win against Donald Trump who is completely oblivious to the problem of race in the USA. Racial relations will not improve, if anything they will deteriorate further. Hillary Clinton is a "Globalist" which means more trade agreements with the "third world" and a continued transfer of jobs by International Corporations. Racial relations cannot improve until there are jobs for the majority of Americans and the "1%" is forced to become the "5%" at the very least. That is not going to happen when the candidate draws the majority of her funding from the "1%".

Hillary Clinton will also bring the USA into at least one "UN War", that is a war that has no relationship to the needs or wants of the USA but is entirely because the Globalists and UN think that they must "right a wrong". Because that war will be in Muslim held nations, there will be no possibility of the US winning a "Victory".

There is a strong possibility of Russia and China quietly supporting the anti UN side with weapons, money and political cover.

Because Donald Trump has "broken" the nomination process of the Republican party, the reorganized Republican party will most likely nominate their best candidate since Eisenhower. People forget that Eisenhower had 57.4% of the popular vote and 457 Electoral Votes. His Vice President (Richard Nixon) won in 1972 with 60.7% of the popular vote and 520 Electoral Votes.

Good Presidents tend to have coat tails that their Vice-President ride into office with. The same thing happened with Ronald Reagan who won the 1984 election with 58.8% of the popular vote and 525 Electoral Votes. That set up his Vice-President Bush 41 to win 53.4% of the popular vote and 426 Electoral Votes.

Lyndon Johnson's Vice President Herbert Humphrey didn't go on to be President, Bill Clinton's Vice President Al Gore didn't go on to be President and Barack Obama's Vice President won't be going on to be President. The only reason that Hillary Clinton will win is that the Republicans are so devoid of talent that there isn't an alternative. Elected Presidents are always a "Centralist" in their time. That's the way that they get the voters that vote Democrat normally, but will vote for a "Centralist" Republican.

ps Al Gore sole declared asset in 1976 was a mortgaged house. He's worth over 300 million after his sacrifices to public service. Bill Clinton and Hillary Clinton declared a worth of 250,000, They are worth at least 55 million.

That's the reason Politicians run for office. There's a lot of money in those terrible sacrifices to public service.

 

[sdw]

Of Course, THIS could happen