And another sad election coming, probably May 2

whoisjohngalt

Member
Aug 4, 2009
147
1
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Vancouver area
For some younger people with jobs, commuting and children to care for those 15 minutes on one particular day, ... and I think in most cases it's more like half an hour to 45 minutes, really, ... could be a major problem. Parties that are well organized in an area will offer rides to the polls for the elderly or people without vehicles, but would you want some party worker baby sitting your kids for an hour? How much do you trust the parties?
It's easy to make excuses but I stand by what I said before. Anyways, if we want to get down to brass tacks, the likelihood of a single vote making a difference in the outcome is close to zero so it really doesn't matter if you vote or not. So if it seems like it's too much trouble to vote, then to paraphrase Nancy Reagan, just stay home! I should run commercials that go "Decision 2011... Liberals? Conservatives? NDP? None of the above! Just stay home!"
 

Bartdude

New member
Jul 5, 2006
1,252
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Calgary
Remember....a vote for Harper....

....is a vote for Nickelback :eek:

 

FloridaGuy

Member
Mar 5, 2009
285
1
18
The left is split, so the Libs are out of the running. If the BQ wasn't around, Quebec would provide a large Conservative majority. As it stands, small majority or large minority for Mr. Harper.
 

HankQuinlan

I dont re Member
Sep 7, 2002
1,744
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victoria
It is becoming clear that the NDP has a real opportunity to be the official opposition to what is looking like a Conservative minority government. Michael Ignatieff and the Liberals lose more support in every poll since the Leader's Debates. The Conservatives are stalled in high minority territory and don't seem to be able to find more votes, every poll says they are in the 38 - 39% range.

ps, anyone care to bet with me on this?
That is the most satisfying result I could hope for in this election. I wouldn't bet money against your following scenarios, either.

The problem is also that Harper keeps 'harping on' that he must win a majority or the risky coalition will take over and doom the country. He keeps ignoring that if he was a responsible prime minister and made the concessions necessary to win enough votes to have a majority in parliament, he could keep on passing good legislation. Harper is smart enough to do so if we wanted to. If reasonable accomodations are made, and his government was defeated anyway, Harper would have a legitimate appeal to the voters, instead of the tough guy stance he has assumed.
 

Bartdude

New member
Jul 5, 2006
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New Quebec only poll

Conservatives 7%
Liberals 9%
NDP 31%
Bloc 28%

http://ipolitics.ca/2011/04/21/ndp-surges-in-quebec-bloc-quebecois-dropping/
Um, think you might have some typos there:

"Jack Layton’s New Democratic Party has surged past the Gilles Duceppe’s faltering Bloc Québécois and is now in first place in Quebec, according to a poll conducted by Ekos Research and iPolitics.

The poll, conducted earlier this week, found the New Democrats have jumped 10 percentage points since the eve of the leaders debate to 31.1 per cent while the Bloc has dropped like a rock by 7.4 percentage points to 23.7 per cent.

The Liberals are steady at 20.6 per cent while the Conservatives have dropped slightly to 16.9 per cent."
 

mozer

New member
Nov 3, 2008
19
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0
Edmonton
I think it is time that Canadians got of their butts and grew a pair. The turnout for voting in Canada is pathetic but after every election every one bithes about the results. Our soldiers fight and fought for our freedoms one of which is the right to vote and elect your government.

Look at all the candidates and ther policies and vote accordingly. At least after the election you will have the right to bitch if your party didn't win.

It is amazing that people all over the world look at Canada as a great place to live and a lot would love to be able to immigrate here and we take it for granted and can't be bothered to vote.

The old line that my vote won't matter is crap. The majority that don't vote could make the difference between having a minority or majority.

If one party has a majority and the people don't like the way the they conduct bussiness vote them out in 4 years. Having a minority that has to cater to the other parties by changing their ideals and vision just doesn't work.

How many more hundreds of milions of dollar to we have to waste bfore we realize we can make a difference.

Well that my 2 cents and rant.
 

HankQuinlan

I dont re Member
Sep 7, 2002
1,744
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victoria
Not the way it works Hank. Harper has managed to top the leadership index in every poll. People may not like his policies, but they respect the fact that he states a clear vision and doesn't soften it.
And, obviously, the majority of Canadians do not respect his "vision" and see it as a tired retread of failed conservative tropes from the last few decades -- trickle-down economics, playing on fear of crime and immigration, relying of fears of economic difficulty by playing up the myth that they are the best managers -- despite plenty of evidence that this is hardly true (G8 summit?). And failing to "soften" it -- to most of us -- is read as having in no interest in meeting the interests of the majority who do not subscribe to his "vision."

It is true, of course, that a strong leadership personality is very important to election results -- which is again, why this election is so sad because we are denied that. Harper will never be seen as having that quality by the majority of Canadians -- and neither will any of his current opponents. We will have a failed government until the parties learn to work together for the common good.
 

HankQuinlan

I dont re Member
Sep 7, 2002
1,744
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victoria
Having a minority that has to cater to the other parties by changing their ideals and vision just doesn't work.
It has to work -- that is the reality of a multi-party democracy. "Catering to the other parties by changing their ideals and vision" is called "compromising" for the benefit of all. It also avoids wild swings from one extreme to another -- which we have so far avoided in this country. That is a good thing.
 

Bartdude

New member
Jul 5, 2006
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Don't fault the guy for playing to win, that's his job - but all he's doing is bleeding votes away from the parties that can prevent a Harper majority.
 

DavidMR

New member
Mar 27, 2009
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It's easy to make excuses but I stand by what I said before. Anyways, if we want to get down to brass tacks, the likelihood of a single vote making a difference in the outcome is close to zero so it really doesn't matter if you vote or not. So if it seems like it's too much trouble to vote, then to paraphrase Nancy Reagan, just stay home! I should run commercials that go "Decision 2011... Liberals? Conservatives? NDP? None of the above! Just stay home!"

I don't think you can call it "excuses" unless you have also faced those same time pressures and responsibilities. I am sure many young couples find that the decision to not vote in a given election is one that just creeps up on them. It's election day and they simply do not have the time to spare and haven't made any arrangement for child minding and it's too late now.

As for one vote not making a difference it depends on where you live. There has been a number of very close, even super close races in recent years that have gone to recounts, Vancouver South (Dosanjh) last time at the federal level, and the Cariboo South riding in the 2009 provincial election. Dosanjh was re-elected last time by twenty (20) votes.
 

HankQuinlan

I dont re Member
Sep 7, 2002
1,744
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victoria
And yet another poll puts the NDP in the lead in Quebec and in second place nationally. http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5218
Obviously, I should be overjoyed at that. After all, I'm a Conservative. Maybe, Hank should be overjoyed also. After all, he's a godless socialist supporter of the NDP.

I think it's safe to say that both of us would rather that you vote.
Yes, indeed. I agree with almost everything in your post....except maybe the emphasis on poll results. Allen Gregg was quoted in an article yesterday about how seriously to take most poll results:

"But given the problems facing the industry and the hyped coverage of polls, Gregg maintains: 'All we've done with these horse-race polls is move people from uninformed to misinformed.' "
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ca...qM5g8GTREhMgWZGZ8c4kRvWvkc2Edog?docId=6621639

Another potential result of polls showing a potential Conservative majority of seats is that it might galvanize opponents to vote -- nah, probably not.
 

ThisEndUp

mort à l'entente
:p I always win the seat prediction poll at work :p If a person takes the bare % of popular vote that headlines a poll, they can be mis-directed. However, if a person looks at voter loyalty and also voter persistence, they can have a good idea of what is going to happen. For the purpose of prediction, it's rather useless to worry about people that won't bother to vote. But, you do need to know who is likely to jump on the bandwagon.

That's what is happening with the NDP. Layton managed to make the NDP more relevant to Canadians than Ignatieff has made the Liberals. There is no doubt in my mind that the NDP will form the official opposition after May 2nd.

A lot of Canadians feel as you do. They have been seeking the alternative to a Conservative majority. That's why Ignatieff came out of the blocks with his "There is a Red door and there is a Blue door" speech. That stuck until the debates and, more importantly, the Duceppe speech after the convention. Canadians that couldn't support a Conservative majority also couldn't support a coalition with a separatist component, especially when separatism had just been re-affirmed. Ignatieff had been trying to run a "Harper is running a campaign of fear" campaign and Duceppe proved Harper right and Ignatieff wrong. The alternative to a Conservative majority became NDP lead and the polls are clearly showing that.
I hope your numbers are correct, then iggy goes back to harvard, and rae takes over, Liberals = FIN at that point
 

HankQuinlan

I dont re Member
Sep 7, 2002
1,744
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victoria
That's what is happening with the NDP. Layton managed to make the NDP more relevant to Canadians than Ignatieff has made the Liberals. There is no doubt in my mind that the NDP will form the official opposition after May 2nd.
i would love to see Layton as leader of the opposition. On the bright side of your projections, if Harper does win a majority, I would love to see the Liberals (and the Bloc) humiliated by the NDP. The Liberals are the party that stands for nothing-in-particular, and need a serious time-out to see if they can think of something they do stand for.

On the other hand, if Harper wins a minority, there would be good chance of seeing Jack as Prime Minister -- but I am pretty sure it wouldn't last long. Imagine the outrage of Harper fans and the mainstream media.

And, after all, Harper is not going to destroy our country in four years, even with a majority. He is not an idiot on the level of GWB or the Tea Party nutcases, and we are not the US. I am pretty certain, though, that a majority would bring the real fundamentalist loonies in the CPC out of the shadows, and Canadians will be not be happy. It keeps slipping out, even though I am certain that Harper has given them a Godfather-like pep talk to stfu since he has been in charge.
 

uncleg

Well-known member
Jul 25, 2006
5,655
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As popular as Layton is getting to be, I for one, will not vote NDP. Simple reason being I personally know one of their candidates in Surrey and the man is a slime ball. I don't know how he came to be selected, but any party that would select him as a candidate does not get my vote. Problem is, he has a good chance to get elected and then my tax dollars go to pay him a salary he has no hope of ever earning, and maybe a pension to boot.
 

HankQuinlan

I dont re Member
Sep 7, 2002
1,744
6
0
victoria
I am reminded strongly again today of why I hate this election so much. Reading the various news reports, and listening currently to Cross-Country Checkup -- most of the discussions are all about the "horse-race" aspect of the election: what could this poll result mean? How will this statement or revelation affect the chances of this candidate? If someone wants to actually discuss issues on the radio show, Rex Murphy is quickly changing it back to the "race."

And, of course, this only reflects the politicians' emphasis. Harper sticking to the very few basic statements, and being rewarded for speaking down to the electorate. Ignatieff flailing about trying to come up with equivalent statements that would engage interest. Layton laying out policies that he could never carry out. Nobody talking about genuine issues -- afraid that they would be talking over our heads? Are we really as stupid as the politicians and mainstream media think we are?

Sigh.
 
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