Is the economy recovering from Covid?

[80watts]

For the last 20 years of low interest rates, and with the current rising interest rates; is the economy recovering? Covid stopped some supply chains, and there was a noticeable difference on stores shelves and alot of well established companies calling it quits (retail stores).

Are people better off now then 20 years ago? 10 years ago?

Since alot of peoples disposable income has to do with how much they are paying for a mortgage/rent. I mention this because I have noticed an increase in the number of people complaining about escort rates or are pooning less. Indicating that money is going elsewhere.

Also with the rising interest rates, I remember a conversation years ago about the low interest rates at the time, and people buying houses at the inflated price in very active market places like Vancouver and Toronto. The comment I remember was something about people losing their house if the interest rate increased by 2 or 3 % because they were mortgaged to the hilt...

Before the mortgage collaspe of 2008, subprime loans (prime - .4 % etc) were very common. I think they disappeared after 2010/11.

And interest rates will again go up next year. Mostly because of inflation which was kick started by Covid and interruptions of supply chains.

Right now the story in the media is about the rise in food prices.

 

[rlock]

For the last 20 years of low interest rates, and with the current rising interest rates; is the economy recovering? Covid stopped some supply chains, and there was a noticeable difference on stores shelves and alot of well established companies calling it quits (retail stores).

Are people better off now then 20 years ago? 10 years ago?

Since alot of peoples disposable income has to do with how much they are paying for a mortgage/rent. I mention this because I have noticed an increase in the number of people complaining about escort rates or are pooning less. Indicating that money is going elsewhere.

Also with the rising interest rates, I remember a conversation years ago about the low interest rates at the time, and people buying houses at the inflated price in very active market places like Vancouver and Toronto. The comment I remember was something about people losing their house if the interest rate increased by 2 or 3 % because they were mortgaged to the hilt...

Before the mortgage collaspe of 2008, subprime loans (prime - .4 % etc) were very common. I think they disappeared after 2010/11.

And interest rates will again go up next year. Mostly because of inflation which was kick started by Covid and interruptions of supply chains.

Right now the story in the media is about the rise in food prices.

Not yet. Economics is a strange beast. Businesses gripe about the lockdown (understandable loss of business, but were people supposed to just get sick and die for them?), then the "supply chain" issues which followed global industrial disruption, but the big business was largely making no effort to repair it I guess, so here we are in inflationland. Sure, you can't spend war-like levels of money without some inflationary effect, but have you ever noticed that the amount still never kept pace with what was needed? The plain fact is the government acted only to the extent that it was forced to - perhaps not even that much in some places - and quit the fight as soon as it could get away with it. Enormously expensive on the public side still, but on the private side of the ledger, the big shots did basically jack shit - banks, tech giants, and other megacorps. They have only used it as an opportunity for more profiteering and other swindles, and are trying to retrench all the bad practices which got us to this situation in the first place. (Like trying to force all those remote workers to go back into the same old poorly ventilated offices, through the same long, risky, time wasting, energy burning commute to boot! !

They (our so-called leaders and other writers of the official narrative) can "declare victory" over COVID all they want, but that's just them patting themselves on the back for a job only half done. The real bill has yet to come due for all the real long-term health problems COVID has caused, that will go on among the survivors probably for their whole lives. I honestly do not think they have done a real economic analysis of that, predictive or otherwise. All the so-called "leaders" seem content to just sweep it under the rug or maintain some delusionary state, like it never even happened.

 

[Mr. J]

I think it would be safe for all of us to ask if ANY economic recovery will happen at a decent speed. Any form of recovery within five years would be nothing short of a miracle, but I don't see THAT happening.

 

[westwoody]

Work from home and shop from home both got big boosts.
Carmakers and realty types will be butthurt from the loss of commuters, but everyone else will benefit.

 

[white Ninja]

Interesting, so do you guys think inflation has effected spending ?

so far there hasn’t been job lay offs like in 2008,

so it does’nt feel llike thta kind of recession.

Yes the big tech companies have I know but I don’t know anyone personally that has lost their job. In 2008 it was everywhere.

Plus here in Vancouver all the shops and restaurants are still busy ( probably not as busy ) but no one is dead. People still seem to be spending , just less.

Thoughts ?

 

[rlock]

Work from home and shop from home both got big boosts.
Carmakers and realty types will be butthurt from the loss of commuters, but everyone else will benefit.

Agreed. I heard this saying once and it really is true:

Commuting is unpaid work.

 

[Forum mod]

The supply chain for many things is still very messed up and hopefully the tenative deal in the port situation out there will improve that.

Interest rates keep going up, the recession will come, at some point. The boom before COVID was based on cheap access to unlimited capital. That's over. Food inflation is still out of control, ideally the government rakes those idiots over the coals for that. The governments are also to blame for some of the inflation, COVID meant complete abandonment of any fiscal responsibility. From infrastructure spending to handouts, to child care to everything else, there's not an ounce of restraint happening at any level of government. All that spending is inflationary in and of itself. Epic wildfire seasons and floods and other weather shit doesn't help either, they spend their way out of those problems as well.

The missing piece seems to be that unemployment is still at all time lows. There's whole group of people who have just dropped out of the economy. How that part sorts it self out will be telling. Either they come back at some point, or the wage pressure for scarce employee resources will drive inflation even higher. Idiotic CEOs who want to force people back into the office just make this worse, people who got very used to not commuting are changing jobs to keep that lifestyle. It might not be a tidal wave, but it's not a trickle either.

Discretionary spending is starting to slow down a lot. Check twitter. Half of ladies posting are complaining about how slow it is, doesn't matter where you are looking. If they ain't spending on sex, they aren't going to be spending on a new TV, new car or much of anything else. Things overall aren't that bad, yet. It could get a lot worse.

 

[Equity Market investor]

I could talk about this endlessly. From my perspective. I believe rates will continue to increase until the end of 2023 and into early 2024, but, we're nearing the tail end of it. As for food prices? They won't be in decline mode for quite some time while this whole mess begins to filter down. Meanwhile, Energy prices on the other hand--- which obviously is my interest --- while currently in transition, is also interfering with consumers in ways. It's all intertwined. So, the economy as a whole isn't out of the woods just yet. However, within certain parts of our economy, consumers are still resilient, but, at some point --- depending on who you talk to or what side of the fence you are on --- a recession is still a strong possibility. Some sectors are doing well while other certain " bricks and mortar " types are still struggling. It's anyone's guess to be honest.

My personal belief? By fall of 2024, interests rates will either stop or begin to come down and that's when we'll begin to see light. I'm watching market indicators which will reveal to me much sooner. One thing for sure that could " curtail " things? A.I. But that's down the road and another ball game lol. That is where I stand.

 

[masterpoonhunter]

Commuting is unpaid work.

Profound statement fellow pooner, on a topic that has been around for a long long time.
I started working either from home or very close to home in the late 80's and always felt it was just a matter of time until more folks would be doing it.

 

[westwoody]

My two best friends are working from home.
One is a regional manager who had a big office. Her company realised it was far cheaper to set her up with a home office than rent expensive office space.
The other does tech support, which really can be done from anywhere. Sometimes she works from a picnic table in her backyard.

This trend will change Winnipeg’s downtown as more people leave. How many people working downtown commute for two hours a day? They spend a fortune on cars, parking, lunches. They see their friends work from home and want to do it themselves.
It’s already affecting real estate downtown.

Re labour shortage…wtf. Just spent a week training people in rural Manitoba and have another week coming soon. Impossible to get decent people. Basically wasting huge time and money trying to polish turds. Hiring sketchy people and then letting them go after a few weeks sucks but that’s all that is available.

 

[masterpoonhunter]

Westwoody, you nailed it with your post.

Working from home, or close to home was predicted long ago as the "work of the future". Covid just accelerated the change. Companies that have office workers where the work is from a desk a cubicle or similar have no real reason to keep the expensive spaces. Downtowns everywhere are seeing the exodus and this is just the beginning. And not just downtowns - offices in general are affected. Someone posted here that commuting is unpaid work. No shit and add in the toll it takes on everyone.

As far as what is available for job openings, for fuck sake. Really. What happened? Half these fuckers can't write a letter let alone think critically or take the initiative.

A day of economic reckoning is acomin' ...

 

[masterpoonhunter]

So, back to Covid.
This fucker just will not go away.
Not from the science side, but a bunch of folks I know both Ottawa and Montreal just said they all tested positive and feel like shit.
Then a good gym bud whom I saw a couple days ago, just texted me to take a test as he and his gal pal are sicker than anything and positive.
I'm good, but for fucks sake.

 

[MB Mod]

And the moral of the story is when the updated booster shots come in the fall go get one!