
I always win the seat prediction poll at work

If a person takes the bare % of popular vote that headlines a poll, they can be mis-directed. However, if a person looks at voter loyalty and also voter persistence, they can have a good idea of what is going to happen. For the purpose of prediction, it's rather useless to worry about people that won't bother to vote. But, you do need to know who is likely to jump on the bandwagon.
That's what is happening with the NDP. Layton managed to make the NDP more relevant to Canadians than Ignatieff has made the Liberals. There is no doubt in my mind that the NDP will form the official opposition after May 2nd.
A lot of Canadians feel as you do. They have been seeking the alternative to a Conservative majority. That's why Ignatieff came out of the blocks with his "There is a Red door and there is a Blue door" speech. That stuck until the debates and, more importantly, the Duceppe speech after the convention. Canadians that couldn't support a Conservative majority also couldn't support a coalition with a separatist component, especially when separatism had just been re-affirmed. Ignatieff had been trying to run a "Harper is running a campaign of fear" campaign and Duceppe proved Harper right and Ignatieff wrong. The alternative to a Conservative majority became NDP lead and the polls are clearly showing that.